What is Correlation?
We live in a world full of numbers, trends, and charts. News headlines, social media posts, and even school textbooks often tell us that “X causes Y” — but how do we know if that’s really true? One of the most important lessons we can teach our children, especially as they grow into critical thinkers, is this: just because two things happen together (correlation) doesn’t mean one caused the other.
This idea is called “correlation does not imply causation”. And once you understand it, you start seeing it everywhere. A correlations is simply when two or more things happen at the same time. For example,
Ice Cream and Violence?
Let’s look at the classic example. Studies have apparently shown that when ice cream sales go up, so do rates of violent crime. That sounds worrying — does eating ice cream make people violent?
Of course not. What’s really going on is that both things increase in hot weather. When it’s warmer, more people buy ice cream. At the same time, people are more likely to be out in public, tensions can run higher, and crime rates can rise. The real cause behind both patterns is temperature, not ice cream.
This is why we must be careful before claiming that one thing causes another, just because they happen together. It could be true that one causes the other, but that has to be demonstrated using other information. The correlation itself doesn’t necessarily prove anything.
Why This Matters for Black Children
Our children, especially Black children, grow up in a world full of data and opinions — some helpful, some harmful. Misunderstandings about causation can lead to unfair conclusions. For example, if someone sees a correlation between race and school performance or neighbourhood and crime, they might wrongly assume one causes the other.
Helping our children understand the difference between correlation and causation empowers them to challenge lazy thinking. It gives them tools to question stereotypes, spot faulty logic, and build strong, reasoned arguments. Most of all, it stops them from internalising antiblackness and racism.
Asking the Right Questions
We should encourage our children to ask:
- Could there be another explanation?
- Is there a third factor involved?
- What evidence do we have that one thing caused the other?
By practising this kind of reasoning, they won’t just be better students — they’ll be sharper thinkers, ready to engage with the world around them.
Build Strong Thinkers
Whether it’s in science, history, health, or social issues, being able to spot the difference between coincidence and cause is a crucial skill. It keeps us from jumping to conclusions and helps us understand the world with greater clarity and fairness.
Let’s give our children that gift — the ability to think clearly, challenge assumptions, and look beyond the surface.
